Moonfare private equity outlook 2026
Restarting the flywheel
Private equity deals and exits showed clear signs of a sustained recovery in 2025. As the industry resets in a more conducive investment market, here are ten trends we expect to take shape through 2026.
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What stands out

Exits are set to stage a comebackIn just nine months of 2025, global exit value had already topped the totals from the previous three full years. If this momentum holds, much-needed liquidity could potentially start flowing to investors through 2026 in a way that signals the market is genuinely turning.
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Selection has never mattered moreThe gap between top-performing PE firms and everyone else is getting wider. In a more volatile, tech-driven, high-interest-rate environment, only the most skilled managers will pull ahead. The 2021 vintage already shows a nearly 14-point spread which is the highest since 2014.
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Secondaries to continue their riseWith so much stuck capital, the secondary market will continue to be on a roll. Longer holding periods will drive more LPs and GPs to sell portfolios and release capital from assets as they seek liquidity. Yet there are also structural factors behind the secondary market’s rapid growth.
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More 2026 market insights

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Moonfare megatrends for the year ahead
The world seems to be entering a new economic order marked by volatility and fragmentation. We see investors responding by rotating into safer assets, new regions and private markets, all while technology accelerates structural change.
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What’s next for private equity secondaries
Secondaries are still playing catch-up with the broader private markets and could have plenty of scope to continue growing over the coming year and beyond as both supply and demand momentum builds.
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Semi-liquid funds: new era of investing?
Semi-liquid funds may deliver private equity-like returns but with more flexibility than traditional funds. What advantages do these vehicles have over more traditional private markets points of access?
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Important notice: This content is for informational purposes only. Moonfare does not provide investment advice. You should not construe any information or other material provided as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. If you are unsure about anything, you should seek financial advice from an authorised advisor. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. Private equity is a high-risk investment and you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong. Subject to eligibility. Please see https://www.moonfare.com/disclaimers.