In this Deal Talk conversation, Steffen Pauls, Moonfare’s founder and co-CEO, and Mike O’Sullivan, chief economist, explore the current technological revolution that promises to surpass the internet and the smartphone.

Is this all just hype, or the dawn of a new era? Drawing parallels with the early 2000s internet bubble, the pair provided insights into the future trajectory of AI, addressing whether we might see a similar pattern of euphoria followed by a period of stagnation before substantial growth.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the conversation:

Domain of private markets: We’re on the cusp of a new technology. What’s different compared to the internet era is the financial market behind it. The internet was effectively the child of the equity markets. AI is the realm of private markets.

Reinvention: AI is not only disrupting the broader economy. It’s also a fundamental disruption for the entire private market industry — from buyouts to growth and venture. The industry needs to reinvent itself both in terms of how they apply AI to existing portfolios and new investment themes.

PE’s focus: Data centres are a major focus for private equity, as well as cloud infrastructure, AI models, and digital tools. Private equity managers are also very active as owners — half of PE-backed companies are investing in AI, compared to family-owned companies, where this number is 27%, according to Deloitte.

AI’s role in turnarounds: PE has done very well in terms of returns over the past decade — some of the performance has come from leverage, but now attention is shifting to business turnarounds. A lot of these turnarounds are AI-driven in the sense of operators using data and analytics to understand consumer behaviour and to analyse where the business has gone astray.