Anthropic’s latest $30bn funding round¹ shows how decisively capital has converged around a small group of foundational AI companies.

Leading venture capital managers are moving quickly to access the next generation of AI frontrunners in their scaling, private market phase.

This differentiated access, coupled with early conviction, is what we believe separates top VC from the rest. Firms like Sequoia, Lightspeed, General Catalyst and Accel — all participants in Anthropic’s G Series — were backing AI and machine learning companies well before the opportunity became obvious to everyone else.² They correctly anticipated how technology would transform industries while embedding themselves deeply into the ecosystem of AI founders, researchers and engineers. Their ongoing participation in the round also reflects their strategic conviction in the company's longer term growth trajectory.

That combination of market insight and access can compound over time. Success attracts the most capable entrepreneurs, who in turn attract talent and customers, creating a virtuous cycle in which leading firms consistently see the highest-quality opportunities first.

This pattern is well documented in research. Returns in venture capital are known to persist across fund generations, with top managers more likely to repeat outperformance.³

Concentration by design

It is tempting to compare today’s AI enthusiasm with the excesses of 2021. But structurally, the market looks different.

The post-2022 reset imposed discipline. Growth at all costs has been replaced by a renewed focus on unit economics, capital efficiency and a credible path to profitability. Even leading AI firms are increasingly judged on monetisation and operating leverage. Anthropic, for example, expects to generate as much as $17 billion in cash flow in 2028, with gross profit margin reaching 77%.⁴

At the same time, venture portfolios have become deliberately more concentrated. Late-stage AI participation now requires unprecedented capital commitments. Rather than spreading risk across dozens of smaller bets, managers are increasingly building fewer, higher-conviction positions.⁵

This may increase vintage concentration risk, which investors need to account for. Funds once expected to deploy over three to four years are now often investing within 18 to 24 months.

Concentration, however, does not automatically imply excess. In frontier technologies, value creation tends to cluster around a small number of dominant platforms. We see that VC is adapting accordingly.

Access is everything

Despite sometimes dizzying valuations, private markets still offer significant upside in select AI leaders. While repeated 10x returns from late-stage private rounds are increasingly unlikely, demand for exposure to foundational AI companies remains exceptionally strong. The high level of interest in one of the earlier Anthropic financing rounds made available to eligible Moonfare investors underscored just how scarce high-quality access has become.

What ultimately matters is not simply gaining exposure to AI as a theme, but backing the handful of companies that go on to define entire categories. This is the difference between capturing broad AI beta and concentrated, conviction-driven alpha.

Moonfare approach: value of direct access

Moonfare gained early exposure to Anthropic through long-standing relationships within the venture capital ecosystem. This enabled ‘clean’ entry into a business that has since emerged as one the most valuable private companies in the world.

In financings of this scale and complexity we see direct participation as a risk-management tool. It allows investors to understand precisely where they sit in the cap table, what rights they hold and how incentives are aligned across stakeholders.

More generally, Moonfare does not pursue these thematic bets in isolation. Instead, the focus is on leveraging Moonfare’s longstanding partnerships with proven venture managers with strong track records, deep networks and long-term conviction. Manager and company strength, as well as quality of access and structure, is prioritised over deal flow volume.

By leveraging close relationships with leading venture firms, Moonfare aims to triangulate diligence, assess manager perspectives and access high-quality primary opportunities. Investments are made selectively, with an emphasis on transparency, governance alignment and long-term ownership.